AERA-D: Measurement and Research Methodology Forum

If you reply to this long (17 kB) post please don't hit the reply 
button unless you prune copy of this post that may appear in your 
reply down to a few relevant lines, otherwise the entire already 
archived post may be needlessly resent to subscribers.

****************************************
ABSTRACT:  G.S. Chandy of the Math-Teach list has called attention to 
David Brooks' Op-Ed piece titled "The Biggest Issue."  Brooks wrote: 
"I point to these two research projects. . . ["The Race Between 
Education and Technology" [Goldin & Katz (2008)] and "Schools, 
Skills, and Synapses" [Heckman (2008)]. . . . . because the SKILLS 
SLOWDOWN IS THE BIGGEST ISSUE facing the country. . . . .  this 
slow-moving problem, more than any other, will shape the destiny of 
the nation. . . . . . America rose because it got more out of its own 
people than other nations. That stopped in 1970. Now, other issues 
grab headlines and campaign attention. But this tectonic plate is 
still relentlessly and menacingly shifting beneath our feet." I argue 
that a bigger issue and a more menacing tectonic plate, seldom 
mentioned by editorialists such a Brooks; economists such as Goldin, 
Katz, and Heckman; and select committees - see e.g., "Rising Above 
the Gathering Storm" [NAP (2007)], is the "Threat to Life on Planet 
Earth."
****************************************

G.S. Chandy (2008), in his Math-Teach post "Re: Haim's Challenge 
(Cont'd)" wrote (slightly edited) :

"Here is some evidence from columnist David Brooks (2008), to the 
effect that there ARE important, open. pedagogical questions. (In 
General).  [Check out 'The Biggest Issue', by David Brooks - 
<http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/29/opinion/29brooks.html?ref=opinion>]."

Brooks wrote [bracketed by lines "BBBBBB. . .  ."; my insert at ". . 
. .[insert]. . . . "; my CAPS]:

BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
Why did the United States become the leading economic power of the 
20th century? The best short answer is that a ferocious belief that 
people have the power to transform their own lives gave Americans an 
unparalleled commitment to education, hard work and economic freedom.

Between 1870 and 1950, the average American's level of education rose 
by 0.8 years per decade. In 1890, the average adult had completed 
about 8 years of schooling. By 1900, the average American had 8.8 
years. By 1910, it was 9.6 years, and by 1960, it was nearly 14 years.

As Claudia Goldin. . . 
.[<http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/goldin>] . . . .  and 
Lawrence Katz. . . . 
.[<http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/katz>]. . . . describe in 
their book, "The Race Between Education and Technology," . . . . . 
[Goldin & Katz (2008)]. . . .America's educational progress was 
amazingly steady over those decades, and the U.S. opened up a 
gigantic global lead. Educational levels were rising across the 
industrialized world, but the U.S. had at least a 35-year advantage 
on most of Europe. In 1950, no European country enrolled 30 percent 
of its older teens in full-time secondary school. In the U.S., 70 
percent of older teens were in school.

America's edge boosted productivity and growth. But the happy era 
ended around 1970 when America's educational progress slowed to a 
crawl. Between 1975 and 1990, educational attainments stagnated 
completely. Since then, progress has been modest. America's lead over 
its economic rivals has been entirely forfeited, with many nations 
surging ahead in school attainment.

This threatens the country's long-term prospects. It also widens the 
gap between rich and poor. Goldin and Katz describe a race between 
technology and education. The pace of technological change has been 
surprisingly steady. In periods when educational progress outpaces 
this change, inequality narrows. The market is flooded with skilled 
workers, so their wages rise modestly. In periods, like the current 
one, when educational progress lags behind technological change, 
inequality widens. The relatively few skilled workers command higher 
prices, while the many unskilled ones have little bargaining power.

The meticulous research of Goldin and Katz is complemented by a 
report from James Heckman of the University of Chicago. Using his own 
research, Heckman also concludes that high school graduation rates 
peaked in the U.S. in the late 1960s, at about 80 percent. Since then 
they have declined. . . . . . . [More specifically, on p. 7 Heckman 
(2008) states:  "According to what many regard as the official high 
school graduation rate, U.S. schools now graduate nearly 88 percent 
of students and black graduation rates have converged to those of 
non-Hispanic whites over the past four decades. The evidence in 
Heckman and LaFontaine (2008a) challenges these claims and 
establishes that the high school dropout rate has increased among 
native-born American children. Using a wide variety of data sources, 
they estimate U.S. graduation rates. They establish that (1) THE U.S. 
HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION RATE PEAKED AT AROUND 80 PERCENT IN THE LATE 
1960s AND THEN DECLINED BY 4-5 PERCENTAGE POINTS. (2) About 65 
percent of blacks and Hispanics leave school with a high school 
diploma. Minority graduation rates are substantially below the rates 
for non-Hispanic whites. Contrary to claims based on the official 
statistics, they  find no evidence of convergence in 
minority-majority graduation rates for males over the past 35 years. 
(3) Exclusion of incarcerated populations from the official 
statistics substantially biases upward the reported high school 
graduation rate for black males.]. . . . . .

In "Schools, Skills and Synapses," Heckman . . . . [2008]. . . . 
probes the sources of that decline. It's not falling school quality, 
he argues. Nor is it primarily a shortage of funding or rising 
college tuition costs. Instead, Heckman directs attention at family 
environments, which have deteriorated over the past 40 years.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
I point to these two research projects because THE SKILLS SLOWDOWN IS 
THE BIGGEST ISSUE FACING THE COUNTRY. Rising gas prices are bound to 
dominate the election because voters are slapped in the face with 
them every time they visit the pump. But this slow-moving problem, 
more than any other, will shape the destiny of the nation.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
America rose because it got more out of its own people than other 
nations. That stopped in 1970. Now, other issues grab headlines and 
campaign attention. BUT THIS TECTONIC PLATE IS STILL RELENTLESSLY AND 
MENACINGLY SHIFTING BENEATH OUR FEET.
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB

But, in my view, a BIGGER ISSUE and a more menacing tectonic plate is 
the "Threat to Life on Planet Earth," seldom mentioned by educational 
leaders; politicians; business executives; select committees [NAP 
(2007); editorialists such as David Brooks; and economists such as 
Goldin, Katz, and Heckman -  see e.g., "Drivers Of Education Reform 
and Gender Equity: Economic Competitiveness and Preservation of Life 
on Planet Earth" in Part 2 of Hake & Mallow (2008).

Richard Hake, Emeritus Professor of Physics, Indiana University
24245 Hatteras Street, Woodland Hills, CA 91367
<[log in to unmask]>
<http://www.physics.indiana.edu/~hake/>
<http://www.physics.indiana.edu/~sdi/>

"The Race between Education and Technology"
      Title of a book by Goldin & Katz (2008)

"Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe."
      H.G. Wells (1920)

REFERENCES
Brooks,  D. 2008.  "The Biggest Issue," New York Times, 29 July; 
online at 
<http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/29/opinion/29brooks.html?ref=opinion>. 
Because this piece may soon be available only to subscribers, I have 
followed the helpful practice of mathematician Jerry Becker and 
copied (i.e., "beckered") an annotated and referenced version into 
the OPEN AERA-L archives at <http://tinyurl.com/5ofthx>.  Such 
copying in accord with "fair use" of copyrighted material as provided 
for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. For more information go 
to  <http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml>.

Chandy, G.S. 2008. "Re: Haim's Challenge (Cont'd),"  Math-Teach post 
of 02 Aug 2008 03:50:08 EDT; online at 
<http://mathforum.org/kb/message.jspa?messageID=6320123&tstart=0>.

Goldin, C. & L.F. Katz. 2008. "The Race between Education and 
Technology." Harvard Univ. Press. Publisher's information at 
<http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog/GOLRAC.html>:
"The book argues that technological change, education, and inequality 
have been involved in a kind of race. During the first eight decades 
of the twentieth century, the increase of educated workers was higher 
than the demand for them. This had the effect of boosting income for 
most people and lowering inequality. However, the reverse has been 
true since about 1980. This educational slow-down was accompanied by 
rising inequality. The authors discuss the complex reasons for this, 
and what might be done to ameliorate it."  Amazon.com information is 
at <http://tinyurl.com/5773s8>.

Hake, R.R.  & J.V. Mallow. 2008. Gender Issues in Science/Math 
Education (GISME): Over 700 Annotated References & 1000 URL's:
   *Part 1 - All References in Alphabetical Order
      <http://www.physics.indiana.edu/~hake/GISME-5t-Part1.pdf>  (8.5 MB);
   *Part 2 - Some References in Subject Order
       <http://www.physics.indiana.edu/~hake/GISME-5t-Part2.pdf> (4.8 MB).
Because periodic updates of GISME necessitate changing the URL's, an 
address that will always work is "Reference 55 at 
<http://www.physics.indiana.edu/~hake/>."
Part 2 subjects are:
(a) Affirmative Action;
(b) Constructivism: Educational and Social;
(c) DRIVERS OF EDUCATION REFORM AND GENDER EQUITY: ECONOMIC
        COMPETITIVENESS AND PRESERVATION OF LIFE ON PLANET EARTH;
(d) Education and the Brain;
(e) Gender & Spatial Visualization;
(f) Harvard President Summers' Speculation on Innate Gender 
Differences in Science and Math
        Ability;
(g) Hollywood Actress Danica McKellar's book "Math Doesn't Suck";
(h) Interactive Engagement;
(i) International Comparisons;
(j) Introductory Physics "Curriculum S" (for Synthesis);
(k) Is There a Female Science? - Pro & Con;
(l) Schools Shortchange Girls (or is it Boys)?;
(m) Sex Differences in Mathematical Ability: Fact or Artifact?;
(n) Status of Women Faculty at MIT.

Heckman, J.J. 2008.  "Schools, Skills, and Synapses," Working Paper 
14064, National Bureau Of Economic Research; online at 
<http://www.nber.org/papers/w14064.pd> (1.9 MB). The abstract reads 
"This paper discusses (a) the role of cognitive and noncognitive 
ability in shaping adult outcomes, (b) the early emergence of 
differentials in abilities between children of advantaged families 
and children of disadvantaged families, (c) the role of families in 
creating these abilities, (d) adverse trends in American families, 
and (e) the effectiveness of early interventions in offsetting these 
trends. Practical issues in the design and implementation of early 
childhood programs are discussed."  On page 5, Heckman writes: "The 
Bell Curve. . . [Herrnstein & Murray (1996)]. . . . assigned a 
primary role to genetics in explaining the origins of differences in 
human cognitive ability and a primary role to cognitive ability in 
shaping adult outcomes. If cognitive ability is genetically 
determined and is primary in shaping adult outcomes, public policy 
towards disadvantaged populations is limited to compensation. Recent 
research, summarized in this paper, establishes the power of 
socioemotional abilities and an important role for environment and 
intervention in creating abilities. The field of epigenetics surveyed 
in Rutter (2006) demonstrates how genetic expression is strongly 
influenced by environmental influences and that environmental effects 
on gene expression can be inherited. EVIDENCE IS PRESENTED IN THIS 
PAPER THAT HIGH QUALITY EARLY CHILDHOOD INTERVENTIONS FOSTER 
ABILITIES AND THAT INEQUALITY CAN BE ATTACKED AT ITS SOURCE. Early 
interventions also boost the productivity of the economy.

Herrnstein, R. J. and C. A. Murray.  1996. "The Bell Curve: 
Intelligence and Class Structure in American Life." Free Press. 
Amazon.com information at <http://tinyurl.com/5tksfp>. Note the 
"Search Inside" feature.

NAP. 2007. Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy, 
"Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America 
for a Brighter Future," National Academies Press; online at 
<http://books.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html> : "In a world where 
advanced knowledge is widespread and low-cost labor is readily 
available, U.S.  ADVANTAGES IN THE MARKETPLACE AND IN SCIENCE AND 
TECHNOLOGY HAVE BEGUN TO ERODE. A COMPREHENSIVE AND COORDINATED 
FEDERAL EFFORT IS URGENTLY NEEDED TO BOLSTER U.S. COMPETITIVENESS AND 
PRE-EMINENCE IN THESE AREAS. This congressionally requested report by 
a pre-eminent committee makes four recommendations along with 20 
implementation actions that federal policy-makers should take to 
create high-quality jobs and focus new science and technology efforts 
on meeting the nation's needs, especially in the area of clean, 
affordable energy: 1) Increase America's talent pool by vastly 
improving K-12 mathematics and science education; 2) Sustain and 
strengthen the nation's commitment to long-term basic research; 3) 
Develop, recruit, and retain top students, scientists, and engineers 
from both the U.S. and abroad; and 4) Ensure that the United States 
is the premier place in the world for innovation. Some actions will 
involve changing existing laws, while others will require financial 
support that would come from reallocating existing budgets or 
increasing them. "Rising Above the Gathering Storm" will be of great 
interest to federal and state government agencies, educators and 
schools, public decision makers, research sponsors, regulatory 
analysts, and scholars.

Rutter, M. 2006. "Genes and Behavior: Nature-Nurture Interplay 
Explained." Blackwell Publishers. Amazon.com information at 
<http://tinyurl.com/5su54z>. Note the "Search Inside" feature.

Wells, H.G. 1920. "The Outline of History." For Amazon.com 
information on a two volume set published in 1974 by Scholarly Press 
see <http://tinyurl.com/yjs83d>. For an interesting history of this 
treatise see
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Outline_of_History>.


AERA Division D: Measurement and Research Methodology Forum
-----------------------------------------------------------------
 AERA Home Page on the World Wide Web: http://www.aera.net
 List Service Info http://listserv.aera.net/scripts/wa.exe
 To cancel your subscription address an email message to
 [log in to unmask] containing only the message UNSUB AERA-D
 Address problems with your subscription to: [log in to unmask]
-----------------------------------------------------------------